This is way more in my good friend Borepatch’s area than it is mine, but I’m going to risk making myself look like a fool expand my horizons by linking to this scary article.
Solar maximum? Oh, you just missed it
WAITING for solar fireworks to reach a grand finale next year? Um, sorry, looks like you already missed them. Structures in the sun’s corona indicate that the peak in our star’s latest cycle of activity has been and gone, at least in its northern hemisphere.
The southern hemisphere, meanwhile, is on a sluggish rise to solar maximum and may not hit its peak until 2014.
This bizarre asymmetry strengthens a theory that has been bubbling among sun watchers for the past few years: our star is headed for hibernation. Having the sun’s outbursts turned off for a while would provide a better baseline for studying how they influence Earth’s climate.
While it might provide a better baseline for studying how sunspot influence Earth’s climate, there’s a good chance it will be a much colder baseline.
Such a large asymmetry between hemispheres could be a sign of big changes ahead, says Steven Tobias, a mathematician at the University of Leeds, UK, who models what drives the sun’s magnetic field. According to his models, such a situation precedes an extended quiet phase called a grand minimum. “Changes in symmetry are more indicative of going into a grand minimum than the strength of the cycle,” he says.
Grand minima can last for decades. The previous one took place between 1645 and 1715, and has been linked to the little ice age in Europe. A new one might also cause localised cold periods, but many climate scientists see a silver lining to such a turn of events: a grand minimum offers ideal conditions for testing the effects of solar variability on Earth’s climate (see “Our star’s subtle influence“).
Pardon me if I’m not as excited about a Grand minimum despite my new snow blower. The fact is that I hate winter a bit more each year and plan to move somewhere warmer as soon as I can. That’s if there is somewhere warmed to move to. And yes, I know that we might not see the effects of this until my children are my age and I’m long gone, but I’m still worried.
I hope Borepatch will comment, but somehow I don’t think he’ll be reassuring.
I haven’t looked into this in detail, but there’s no question that solar activity is directly linked to climate. We’ve known for 200 years that sunspots are correlated with the price of wheat, and so changes in solar activity is of much more immediate concern than carbon dioxide.
Partially of my own interest and partially because of your posts, I’ve followed the AGW debate for a few years. It’s pretty obvious that the pro AGW people have thin gruel upon which to base their arguments, which is why they have to fudge their data. Of course the MSM is neutral in their favor, although calling them neutral is giving them the benefit of a doubt which they may not deserve. Which is why the role of solar activity on climate (not weather) is under reported to the point of being non reported.